The Queen speaks very carefully on Scottish referendum

The Queen 'speaks out' very carefully
- and what she says will change nothing

Monday 15 September It's probably fair to say that the Queen likes Scotland. Her mother was Scottish, she takes the whole family up there every summer, and they all dress the part in tartans and tweeds.
It's probably also fair to say, as Alex Salmond does, that she would be proud to be Queen of Scotland . But she would probably prefer to remain Queen of the United Kingdom.
Last week, in the panic that followed the realisation that the Scots might just choose to go it alone, some dotty Tories urged Her Majesty to speak out to "save the union". They were egged on by the Daily Telegraph, which has repeatedly quoted her comment from 37 years ago, when devolution was a hot issue, that she could not forget that she had been crowned Queen of the United Kingdom.
Yesterday some thought their prayers were answered, appropriately enough, at church. She paused on the way out of Crathie kirk to speak to the cluster of people gathered outside. "The Press" were invited to step forward to take photographs. And during the course of her chatting, the Queen expressed the hope that people would "think very carefully".
This was apparently all stage-managed by the Queen, who had even instructed the Duke of Edinburgh to wear a kilt.
The photographer Donald Stewart, who has been taking pictures of the royal party at Crathie for donkey's years, told the Telegraph that the last time he could remember the Press being invited to step over the 200-yard line was in 2006. Clergy confirmed that the Queen generally goes straight to her car without stopping to talk to well-wishers.
It was all very unusual - as the Telegraph splash told us half a dozen times.
It was also all very odd.
SubScribe hasn't yet been able to establish how many members of the Press were present, but however many there were, none of them seems to have heard the conversation between the Queen and her subjects, in spite of that explicit and - don't forget - unusual invitation for them to witness the exchange.
Instead, all the papers report that the Queen is "understood to have said.."
They don't even agree on her exact words. Some say that she hoped people would think very carefully "about the future", others that she hoped they would think very carefully "about the referendum next week".
She was, we understand, responding to a joke from someone in the group outside the church that they were not going to mention the referendum. The Queen, it is understood, replied:"You have an important vote on Thursday." It was then, it is reported, that she said her bit about careful thinking.
Cue delight all round. The Scottish Mail and the Glasgow Herald managed to turn this into a "plea". The Telegraph was more circumspect in its headline, but was sufficiently excited to splash on the story in both English and Scottish editions - the only English paper not to lead on the murder of David Haines and the threat to Alan Henning.
This was proof, claimed the No camp, that the Queen was urging people to vote for the union. Rubbish, said the Yes camp, she was repeating what they'd been saying all along: think carefully. The Palace meanwhile stuck with its "we couldn't possibly comment" line.
For Gordon Rayner, the Telegraph's chief reporter, it was as clear as day. The Queen was aware that yesterday's church outing could be her last public appearance as Queen of the United Kingdom and she wasn't going to let the occasion pass her by; she spoke in the full knowledge that her words would make front-page news:

Back in London, her “spontaneous” remarks about the referendum took her courtiers completely by surprise, and drove a State Coach and horses through the “official” Buckingham Palace line that Her Majesty is totally impartial on the matter of Scottish independence.
Her press secretaries tried their best to spin the comment as proof of her neutrality, and repeated the mantra that “the Queen regards the referendum as entirely a matter for the Scottish people”.
In an attempt to persuade me of this, one senior courtier told me: “The Queen, being the most experienced of the lot, knows where to draw the line.”
And that is exactly the point. With 62 years of experience, the Queen does know where the line is, and she will also have known that her choice of words meant she stepped beyond it.
The Queen simply does not make such comments by accident, and when the Head of State of the United Kingdom urges people to think “carefully” about their vote, what other conclusion are we to draw than that she is concerned the Scots will take a rash step into the unknown by voting Yes? After all, a No vote is a vote to preserve the status quo, and the Queen is hardly likely to advise Scots to be “careful” about leaving things they way they are.

Right. Let's take that a little bit at a time.
The encounter was stage-managed
So was that joke from the onlookers about not mentioning the referendum pre-arranged? Was there a plant in the group? Was that the only topic of conversation? Just the one question, soundbite delivered, thank you and good night?
The Queen knows where to draw the line
She surely does, but did she step over it? With both sides taking comfort from her remark, maybe her foot was just hovering teasingly over the paint..
What inference are we to draw?
That she would like to keep the union? Probably. That she is concerned about a "rash step into the unknown"? That's a bit loaded.
She's hardly likely to advise Scots to be careful about leaving things as they are?
Come on! We've all had to make a decision about change - whether to move house or accept a job offer - and it's often harder to pass up on an opportunity than to grasp it. Either way, it requires careful thought.

Rayner is half right when he says she knew it could be her last public appearance as Queen of the United Kingdom. Even with a Yes vote, she will continue to hold that role until all the details are ironed out, but by next Sunday the people of Scotland may have voted to carve up her realm. Is it surprising that she should want to make contact with some of those people, rather than to sweep in and out imperiously as though she didn't care one way or the other?

Few are in any doubt about what the Queen feels about the union. Most also understand that she mustn't express that opinion. Yesterday she put on a small display of solidarity with people outside a Scottish church. She chose her words carefully and said nothing to change anyone's perception of her stance on the referendum. Nor is she likely to have changed anyone's mind about which way they should vote on Thursday.

To present this brief encounter as a plea or warning to the Scottish electorate - or, even worse, as part of a co-ordinated 'save the union' strategy worked out with David Cameron - reinforces the air of panic and does a disservice to our astute sovereign.

English papers
caught napping

Before last Sunday's opinion polls, the referendum had made the splash in English papers only five occasions this year. That compares with 30 on house prices, 25 on migrants and 26 on Madeleine McCann
Wake us up before they go-go

Tuesday's Scottish front pages